Research Report on Photovoltaic Silicon Industry in 2020

Time:2021-05-03 22:37 click:

The demand for photovoltaic and silicon materials continues to rise, which leads to limited new capacity of polysilicon industry in 2021. Since August 2020, in order to fully guarantee the supply of raw materials, many enterprises have locked in silicon materials through long-term orders. In 2021, more than 80% of silicon material production capacity has been reserved by downstream enterprises, and the tight supply and demand pattern will continue until the end of 2021.

Multinational policies promote development, which leads to the upward demand for photovoltaic power generation. Global photovoltaics are in a period of high prosperity, and the global energy structure is constantly transforming to new energy. Many countries have formulated policies to promote the development of photovoltaic industry for many times to enhance the certainty of long-term development of photovoltaic industry. With the gradual decline of photovoltaic power generation cost, the cost performance of photovoltaic power generation has been continuously highlighted. In the long run, photovoltaic power consumption cost will continue to decline, and photovoltaic is expected to become one of the cheapest power sources in the world, and the demand for photovoltaic power generation will continue to grow in the future.

Photovoltaic power generation is mainly based on crystalline silicon solar power generation, and the comprehensive power consumption of polysilicon is declining. Photovoltaic power generation is mainly based on crystalline silicon solar power generation. At present, the improved Siemens method is the main method to produce polysilicon, while the  fluidizedbed reactor (FBR) still accounts for a low output ratio. In 2020, the average comprehensive power consumption of polysilicon has dropped to 66.5kWh/kg-Si, and it is expected to drop to 60kWh/kg-Si by 2030 with the improvement of production equipment technology, system optimization capability and production scale. The short-term price of metal silicon fluctuates to a certain extent, but it has little influence on the price and cost of polysilicon, which is mainly affected by the change of downstream demand.

The trend of domestic substitution is obvious, and granular silicon is expected to open up incremental space. Over the years, the global polysilicon production has been continuously improved, and the global polysilicon industry is further shifting to China. At present, China is the most important country producing polysilicon, and its output accounts for 67.3% of the global total. Major foreign polysilicon enterprises have withdrawn, reduced production and laid off employees one after another, resulting in a continuous decline in imports and a downward trend in the proportion of imports. Domestic polysilicon enterprises have accelerated their production expansion and will maintain the domestic substitution trend in the future. Granular silicon has obvious advantages, and is expected to become a new generation of silicon technology to open up incremental space after continuous verification by downstream enterprises in the future.

The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world continues to increase, so that the pattern of tight supply and demand continues. The global installed capacity is gradually increasing, and the domestic installed capacity is expected to maintain a high growth. In the short term, the downstream demand is strong, and the supply of polysilicon is in short supply, which leads to a certain price increase. Considering the limited new capacity of major domestic enterprises in 2021, the tight pattern of supply and demand will continue until the end of 2021.